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SC_RNDude SC_RNDude, BSN, MSN (New Member) New Member

Winning...the economy under Trump

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Despite the doomsday predictions after the election, the economy is roaring.

"The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its newest jobs report on Friday, and the data clearly show, under the pro-business policies implemented by the Trump administration, low-income and working-class families are enjoying significant economic gains not experienced in nearly 20 years." Working-class families are winning big under Trump

"Small-business confidence hit a record high in 2017, according to the National Federation of Independent" Businesses. 'The engine of the economy roared back to life': US small business confidence hit a record-high in 2

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The gist of this seems to be that the trajectory of the economy and more specifically the employment market has changed for the better under Trump. I will give credit for at least not imploding the economy (yet), but if you look at the actual data there have been no changes in the trajectory under Obama.

There are a couple different measures we can use, one is the unemployment rate, shown here (with no change in pattern since Trump took office). The graph only goes through may, but the June through December also ranged between 4.1 and 4.4%.

unemployment-rate-1496406829177-facebookJumbo.png

There are reasonable arguments to be made that the unemployment rate is not as accurate as looking at job growth, so here are the job growth numbers, which again are not particularly different than Obama's, and actually Trump has yet to match Obama's peaks in job growth.

latest_numbers_CES0000000001_2007_2017_all_period_M12_net_1mth.gif

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I wonder if all those coal workers who were told their jobs are coming back think the economy is booming?

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I wonder if all those coal workers who were told their jobs are coming back think the economy is booming?

How a Coal Baron's Wish List Became President Trump's To-Do List - The New York Times

Well, Trump and his minions are certainly doing what they can to dance to the tune of the coal barons, and Mr. Murray told him that doing so would get the coal miners back to work, so I'm sure that, any day now, they'll all be walking in high cotton again ...

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Yup, lets ask the Carrier employees and AT&T people how those tax breaks are working out for their economies.

Of course, there is always that huge Foxconn plant that promises 1000s of jobs, that has been speculated may never come to be.

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MunoRN said:
The gist of this seems to be that the trajectory of the economy and more specifically the employment market has changed for the better under Trump. I will give credit for at least not imploding the economy (yet), but if you look at the actual data there have been no changes in the trajectory under Obama.

There are a couple different measures we can use, one is the unemployment rate, shown here (with no change in pattern since Trump took office). The graph only goes through may, but the June through December also ranged between 4.1 and 4.4%.

There are reasonable arguments to be made that the unemployment rate is not as accurate as looking at job growth, so here are the job growth numbers, which again are not particularly different than Obama's, and actually Trump has yet to match Obama's peaks in job growth.

Actually, the unemployment rate plateaued under Obama. It was between 5.0 and 4.6% from September 2015 on, and at 5% as recent as September, 2016.

Under Trump, it has steadily decreased from 4.8% to 4.1%

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

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Walmart to increase wages, and some speculate they will lower prices.

Walmart to boost starting wage, give employees bonus after tax bill

I don't know that Walmart's move has anything to do with Trump, or the Republican tax scheme (even though they claim it is the latter). Walmart earned $500 billion last year.

They have been raising their minimum pay since 2015. And Target has said it will raise minimum pay to $15 (don't know timetable to for that).

The unemployment rate is at 17-year low. Perhaps Walmart's move has more to do with keeping employees, rather than having employees move over to Amazon or Target.

Even in my dirt poor state, nobody can live on $11 an hour. And we also have an Amazon distribution center in Central KY.

And I don't necessarily see the lowering of prices on cheap goods as a positive thing. A few years ago I read the book The High Cost of Cheap, and it discussed the steep price that is paid for "cheap" goods.

Personally, I never shop at Walmart or Target. And I rarely purchase anything via Amazon. I purchase quite a bit of clothing from Goodwill. I've gotten nice stuff at Goodwill.

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Lil Nel said:
The unemployment rate is at 17-year low. Perhaps Walmart's move has more to do with keeping employees, rather than having employees move over to Amazon or Target.

I would agree, that the unemployment rate which has steadily decreased over the past year to it's 17 year low, has much to do with wage increases.

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This is great news for the 215 people being laid off by Carrier in Indiana. My guess is, they were making slightly more than $11 an hour.

So much winning!

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SC_RNDude said:
Actually, the unemployment rate plateaued under Obama. It was between 5.0 and 4.6% from September 2015 on, and at 5% as recent as September, 2016.

Under Trump, it has steadily decreased from 4.8% to 4.1%

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

As Donald Trump himself has pointed out, the unemployment rate is an unreliable way to measure job growth. Job growth numbers are much more accurate since job growth is only one of two main factors that affect the unemployment rate, an increase of people who just give up looking for a job will also lower the unemployment rate even if there is no increase in job growth from baseline.

It's a huge stretch to suggest that the 0.7% change in the unemployment rate over a year is greater than Obama's average of 0.8% decrease per year or that it represents a significant change in the pre-existing trend, but the bigger issue is that Trump hasn't increased job growth over the baseline, which means the decrease in the unemployment rate is due to workers giving up on looking for a job, which doesn't appear consistent with what the linked articles are claiming.

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