for those interested in the economy

  1. I went to Costco today and it was eerie how empty the aisles were. All of us recognize the poor economy and are glad we have our nursing jobs. President Bush tells us tax cuts will stimulate the economy.......

    Editor:Bush Cites Report That Doesn't Exist
    By James Toedtman
    February 23, 2003

    Washington - There was only one problem with President George W. Bush's claim Thursday that the nation's top economists forecast substantial economic growth if Congress passed the president's tax cut: The forecast with that conclusion doesn't exist.

    Bush and White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer went out of their way Thursday to cite a new survey by "Blue-Chip economists" that the economy would grow 3.3 percent this year if the president's tax cut proposal becomes law.
    That was news to the editor who assembles the economic forecast. "I don't know what he was citing," said Randell E. Moore, editor of the monthly Blue Chip Economic Forecast, a newsletter that surveys 53 of the nation's top economists each month.

    "I was a little upset," said Moore, who said he complained to the White House. "It sounded like the Blue Chip Economic Forecast had endorsed the president's plan. That's simply not the case."

    Deputy White House Press Secretary Claire Buchan insisted Friday that the survey, which mentioned "the likelihood that some version of the Bush administration's latest stimulus package will be enacted," justified the president's claim. Moore said that a survey taken in January before the president announced his plan forecast 3.3 percent annual growth between the last quarter of 2002 and the last quarter of 2003. A survey taken in February reached the same consensus.

    supporting your program by citing a forecast that doesn't exist...
  2. 19 Comments

  3. by   SmilingBluEyes
  4. by   nursegoodguy
    And does this surprise anyone?
    Ooooo what was that overhead? Oh just thunder, thank god!
  5. by   VivaLasViejas
    Oh yeah, I'm aghast......Bush less than honest when it comes to domestic issues.....who'da thunk it??
  6. by   Glad2behere

    The economy was in a slide at least 18 months before the election. I am not going to speculate who is at fault because I think no one really is. It is a downward spiral in the economy that part of normal business cycles. However, I will state that the topography of American domestic business has changed dramatically in the last quarter century. There has been a shift from small independent business to corporate takeovers of previously small business sections of the market. In years past, if one needed home supplies, we went to the local lumberyard or nursery and did business there. Now it's Home Depot, other variations include WalMart, Chili's, Mickey D's, and so on depending on what product one was seeking. This shift has helped the consumer somewhat, but the trend is set very deep now to a one corporate economy, meaning the buyouts and marketshare takeovers continue until there is one huge corporation to buy everything from. It does present three really huge problems in which traditional stimulants to the economy are no longer effective. Slow reaction based on no net benefit to the owners of the business who are a jillion shareholders, and no longer mom and pop. Secondly, the huge amounts of capital are virtually impervious to governmental stimulation because in essence, the money does not have to be paid back...ever. Unlike mom and pop. Thirdly, the whole system is based on balance sheets and projected growth, not yield per capital unit, also unlike mom and pop. So what does any large corporation do to hedge their financials? Layoff folks, downsize, or the newest trick until everyone catches on...expand. Works for a while, until we go through a prolonged trough like we are in now, by then it's refractory in nature. The three above negate most governmental interventions because it's all smoke and mirrors. In years past, incentives to small business and consumers would stimulate mom and pop to go buy that new piece of machinery for their business because tax credits directed at them actually paid for it. I remember years past where my dad would buy a new tractor, truck, or build an accessory building because of tax credits. Presumably a lot of people did likewise and the economy slowly pulled itself from the morass. The competition from huge corporations and the tax laws are eroding small business, and I believe we will see hyper peaks and dismally bleak troughs in the economy as a mainstay for quite sometime, and virtually intractable through governmental intervention.
    Last edit by Glad2behere on Feb 25, '03
  7. by   Tilleycs
    I agree with Glad, the economy had started its downturn WAY before Bush was even IN office. But I guess one of the downsides of being President is that you get BLAMED by your detractors for everything that happens DURING your administration, no matter how long its formation actually took.

    And chances are, most of us WILL benefit from the tax cuts. Funny how we always wished that there would be someone who would make tax cuts...and now that someone is here and WANTS to do it (he's not being forced to)...and people are criticizing it because of what political party he belongs to. If you don't want the money you may get back, please send it to me.
  8. by   BadBird
    You would never know there was a downturn if you go to the casinos, crammed full of people putting in their hard earned cash.

    Seriously, I am so envious I wish we had a Costco here, just Sams Club.
  9. by   caroladybelle
    Yet Bush being in office was supposed to give us so much more confidence in the economy.

    As a matter of note - we all know who has the most control over our economy - his name is Saddam Hussein.
  10. by   maureeno
    but I do think it is rotten to CITE A NON-EXISTANT report to support his policy.
    that is the point of the thread....credibility.

    we have a national debt nearing 8 trillion dollars, not counting the expense of war, occupation and any more tax cuts. Already 25% of every federal dollar goes to paying the interest on that debt. And we have a big IOU for Social Security due starting in about 6 years. How will we pay for all of this?

    An unsound fiscal policy can lead to high interest rates, inflation or even deflation.

    Cutting the highest tax rates when they were 90% {Kennedy} and 70%{Reagan} did stimulate growth. Cutting them from 35% to ???? offers no guarantee of such stimulus, despite BushII's claims.
  11. by   Glad2behere
    "How are we going to pay for all this?" I thought we got passed that 35 or 40 years ago. We ain't. Somebody else will.
    That's how we got to such a high level of debt service in the first place.
  12. by   maureeno
    I double checked and found I'd overstated the debt.
    We are in danger of default and taking money from federal pension funds right now, as we reach the ceiling on the current limit of $6.8 trillion. Congress has been asked by Treasury Secretary Snow to raise the ceiling to $8 trillion.
    Whew! now I feel better!

    Alan Greenspan hopefully put the kabash on another tax cut last week when he testified to the bad effect bigger deficits would have to our economy. We warned of a spiriling debt which could get out of control and leave us in a situation like...say Argentina?

    BushII in his Januarary State of the Union promised we will not leave future generations to pay for our spending. Then he introduces a budget which contradicts that statement....

    Myself, I urge folks to get their houses now while interest rates are low...they will be higher as the government competes for loans. I also recommend thinking twice about how much to fund 401/IRA retirement accounts, taxes are lower now they they most likely will be in the future. Go ahead and pay now, save your money and wait to pull in the higher rates of interest in the future!
    Last edit by maureeno on Feb 26, '03
  13. by   molecule
    Our economy may be in for worse than we can imagine. One reason the US has been such an economic power is the dollar's dominance, it is the currency of world trade. Global demand for dollars has allowed us to live pretty painlessly with our debt. If the euro and the yuan [China] begin to replace the dollar on the world market, its value will fall and our economy will really be in trouble.

    In that case, maureeno's suggestion we save our money waiting to earn high interest in the future, may be wrong. Ask the people of Mexico what it is like when currency is devalued.
  14. by   Glad2behere
    Sounds Good!

    How 'bout the Maureeno/Glad Fund?

    The Glad Maureeno Fund?:chuckle

    The MG Smoke and Mirrors Company?:chuckle